EQUITY RESEARCH · UK · US · BETA IN ITALY

Investment-grade analysis.
Zero guesswork.

The valuation engine institutional analysts wish they had. DCF, Monte Carlo, three-lens synthesis. Time-stamped. Unedited.

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AAPLApple Inc.
Px $182.45Sector TechnologyUpdated 14:32 UTC
Target price · 12M
$218.40
+19.7% upside · signal CORE
DCF 10Y · WACC 8.65% · TV weight 42% · Quality 8.4 / 10. Synthesis blends peer regression (7 peers) and specialist sector overlay.
Equity curve · 24M
BullOnlyS&P 500
Hit rate
71%
Alpha vs SPY
+11.4pp
CAGR 24m
+24.8%
Max DD
−18.2%
Universe4,284stocks
Hit rate · 12M71%
Alpha vs SPY+11.4pp
Recompute800ms

Three lenses. One engine. Every thesis, stress-tested, time-stamped, and never retouched.

The engine

A DCF you could defend in court.

Four mathematical lenses on the same stock. Cross-check your conviction against the full weight of the quantitative stack.

DCF 10Y · AAPL · $218.40 target
Revenue CAGR+8.2%
EBITDA margin32.4%
FCF conversion91%
Equity value$3.12T
Monte Carlo · 1,000 runs · P50 $218
Prob. upside78%
Expected return+19.2%
Volatility22.4%
Sharpe (proj)0.86
Sensitivity · WACC × terminal growth
Base TP$218
Min cell$154
Max cell$286
Median$212
Stress · 4-scenario full engine re-run
Weighted TP$204
Prob. weighted+11.8%
Downside risk−22%
Stress spread$144

10-year discounted cash flow. WACC floored, terminal value bounded, every input traceable.

WACC8.65%
Terminal g2.5%
Exit multiple18.2x
Fair value$218

The lenses

Three views. One stock.

Quality, value, momentum. Each lens refracts a different truth from the same financial reality. Where they agree — conviction. Where they diverge — the signal lives.

QUALITYROE · ROIC · margins
8.4of 10 — Q-score

Durable franchise. Pricing power. A moat that compounds capital at rates above the cost of that capital — measurable in balance sheet discipline, not press releases.

  • ROIC 5y avg · 22.8%
  • Gross margin trend · +140bp
  • FCF conversion · 91%
  • Net debt / EBITDA · 0.6×
  • Accruals ratio · −3.1%
VALUEDCF · Peer multiples · IRR
+19.7%upside · 12m target

What ten years of cash flows — discounted at a WACC we defend in court — actually say the business is worth. Then cross-checked against the multiples eight independent peers are trading at.

  • 10Y DCF · $218.40
  • Peer regression · $204.12
  • Stress-weighted · $211.80
  • Reverse DCF implied · 7.4% CAGR
  • Synthesis blend · 50 / 25 / 25
MOMENTUM12M · Earnings revisions
+24%alpha · trailing 12m

The tape and the analysts. Price history tells you what the consensus has already priced. Earnings revisions tell you where the consensus is still chasing. Together: whether your thesis is early, on time, or too late.

  • Price · 12m · +24.1%
  • vs SPY · +11.4pp alpha
  • EPS revision · +4.2% QoQ
  • Street consensus · 78% Buy
  • Short interest · 1.8% float

“Disagreement between lenses is the most honest research output.”

Track record

Every prediction.
Time-stamped. Never retouched.

Published when we made the call. Scored at 6, 12, and 24 months. Against S&P 500 as benchmark. The ledger is the proof — we either beat the market or we don't, and you get to see both.

Hit rate · 12M71%
Alpha vs SPY+11.4pp
Top quartile CAGR+24.8%
Predictions logged184
Equity curve · 24M blended
BullOnlyS&P 500
Apr 2024Apr 2026

The methodology

How we get to conviction.

Six disciplines. No shortcuts. Scroll to watch the method unfold.

Chapter 01

Start with the facts.

Five years of audited financials — income statement, balance sheet, cash flow — sourced from primary filings. Analyst consensus forward estimates for Year 1. Nothing from management decks. Nothing from press releases. Nothing from sell-side narratives. Before a single WACC is computed, the sector classifier reads the filings and decides which engine runs: a bank is not a software company, a REIT is not a growth stock, a pre-revenue biotech is neither.

  • Primary data: FMP /stable income, balance-sheet, cash-flow, ratios, analyst-estimates
  • Window: 5Y annual history + forward consensus for Year 1 growth
  • Sector routing: Standard · Bank · Insurance · REIT · Pre-revenue Growth
  • Asset-light escape: payment networks (ROA > 25%) bypass BankEngine
  • TTM via analyst forward consensus, not reconstructed from trailing quarters

— Always from the filings, never from the press release.

Revenue$394B
FCF$98B
Margin32.4%
ROIC41%
Y1Y5Y10 · TV
Prediction ledger184 entries · immutable
04 · 2024AAPL · BUY+18.4%
06 · 2024NVDA · BUY+46.2%
08 · 2024META · HOLD+3.1%
09 · 2024UPST · SKIP−14.8%
11 · 2024MSFT · BUY+12.7%
01 · 2025GS · BUY+22.4%
03 · 2025JPM · HOLD+6.8%
05 · 2025V · BUY+19.1%
Coverage4,284US & UK equities11 sectors

How it compares

Investment-grade, without the bank.

The tooling institutional analysts pay six figures for, priced for the independent investor who refuses to outsource conviction.

Feature
BullOnly
Free tools
Premium subs
Proprietary DCF engine
×
Shared
Monte Carlo · 1,000 runs
×
×
4-scenario stress test
×
×
Three-lens synthesis
×
×
Time-stamped track record
×
Partial
Universe coverage
4,284 tickers
~500
~2,000
Refresh cadence
Nightly
Weekly
Weekly
Transparent methodology
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Opaque
Price
€720–1,200 / yr
€0
€2,400–12,000 / yr

Start today

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